New Market or Just Maycember?
Wow—what a month! The month of May began much like the post-COVID months we’ve grown accustomed to, but it ended on a very different note. We saw both encouraging signs of the market moving toward a healthier balance and a few potential warning signals. Time will tell whether these are temporary blips or signs of a larger shift.
Let’s break down the numbers:
The Good News
- Average % Over Asking (Page 1) continues its gradual descent, now at 3.51%. Fairfield County is only the third-highest in the state (behind Hartford and Tolland Counties, both still averaging over 5%). That’s a good sign of the market rebalancing.
- New Listings Are Up: Over 1,000 new single-family home listings in Fairfield County (Page 2)—an 11% increase year-over-year! This much-needed inventory has already cooled the April spike in Over Asking prices, as reflected in the Buyer Demand chart.
- Condo Listings (Page 3) also increased slightly (up just over 3%), with a corresponding dip in Average % Over Asking. Median condo sale prices in May were essentially flat compared to May 2024, which also reflects stabilization.
The Not-So-Good
- Despite the rise in inventory, New Pendings (Page 2) dropped over 13%. That’s unexpected. Typically, increased listings lead to more contracts as pent-up demand gets fulfilled. Instead, demand pulled back just as supply increased.
- The condo market saw a similar trend: a modest 3% increase in listings but a sharp 17% drop in New Pendings.
- Pricing Trends (Page 2) show that while homes are still more expensive than last year, we’re not on track to surpass last year’s peak. At best, June may match it.
What’s Going On?
It’s too early to draw firm conclusions from a single month. Remember July 2023? Headlines predicted doom, only for August to surge and set a new annual high. This could be another case of “Maycember”—that hectic month packed with graduations, sports finals, banquets, travel, camp signups, and more. In short, life may have temporarily pushed home shopping to the back burner.
If that’s true, we should see renewed buyer activity in late June. The alternative explanation involves broader economic worries (government job stability, tariff impacts, etc.), but those have been present for months without major effects—so I’m skeptical they’re the primary cause now.
Let’s Talk Strategy
Interpreting market-wide shifts in the context of your specific goals can be tricky. I’d be happy to meet in person to discuss what all this means for you—coffee or tea is on me. Just let me know when and where!
Looking forward to connecting.
Market Report •
July 3, 2025
May 2025 Market Report
