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April Showers: The Headline vs The Underlying Data |
| April’s numbers are in. If you only read the headlines, you’d think the market is cruising right along. The deeper data tells a more interesting story, and a more important one if you’re thinking about buying or selling this spring. Here’s the link to the data: |
You can see the data here. |
April Showers |
| The headline numbers are sunny. The leading indicators are not. For the first time in a while, several of the metrics that tell us where the market is heading are flashing yellow, even though the metrics that tell us where it’s been still look great. |
Single Family Homes (Page 1) |
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On the surface, April was a strong month. Median sale price climbed to $815,000, up 1.9% year-over-year. Average sale came in at $1,342,776 (up 10.0%). Price per square foot reached $443 (up 9.3%). Total volume topped $574 million, a 3.2% gain over last April.
Look one layer deeper and a different picture emerges (Page 2):
So why are prices still up? Simple: the homes that closed in April were priced and contracted weeks ago, when the market was tighter. Closings are a lagging indicator. The buyer activity behind those closings has noticeably cooled. Months of supply has crept up to 2.28 (anything under 3 still favors sellers, but we are no longer hovering at the extremes that defined late 2024 and early 2025).
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Condos (Page 4) |
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Condos tell a similar story with louder numbers. Median sale was $425,000 (up 4.9%), average sale jumped to $567,638 (up 15.6%), and $/sqft hit $381 (up 9.8%). On the surface, the segment looks red hot.
Underneath (Page 5):
The condo market is pricing strongly off prior months’ transactions, but the bidding heat behind those numbers has dropped sharply. Buyers are still showing up. They’re just no longer competing with three other offers for every unit.
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What’s Going On? |
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A few things are happening at once. Supply is finally arriving in meaningful quantity, especially in the condo segment. Buyers are pulling back, whether from rate fatigue, sticker shock, or just plain selectivity after years of being squeezed. Sellers haven’t yet adjusted their expectations to match the new pace, so we’re seeing more homes lingering, fewer over-asking offers, and a slower overall rhythm.
This is not a market crash. It’s a shift in tempo. We’ve moved from “every well-priced home goes to highest and best” to “well-priced, well-prepped homes still attract strong activity, while everything else has to wait and negotiate.”
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What Does it Mean? |
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Buyers:
You finally have some breathing room. Inventory is wider, days on market are longer, and over-ask premiums are thinning out. If you’ve been waiting for a moment that isn’t a knife fight, this is the closest we’ve gotten in over a year. The window won’t stay open forever, but it’s open right now.
Sellers:
The headline prices are still flattering, but don’t read them and assume your home will sell itself. The market is rewarding preparation more than ever. Pricing right and showing well still matters as much as it did during the frenzy, just for the opposite reason. Not to spark a bidding war, but to avoid sitting on the market while a buyer who already has options decides to wait you out.
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Looking Ahead |
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May should give us a much clearer picture of whether April was a one-month blip or the start of a more durable trend. I’m watching new pendings closely. If they bounce back, this was a seasonal hiccup. If they continue to slide as listings keep rising, we’ll be talking about a more meaningful rebalancing by June.
As always, reach out with any questions, I’m happy to chat!
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Market Report •
May 11, 2026
April 2026 Market Report
